Saturday, January 5, 2013

NFL MVP Vote: All Day

By: Brian Sanchez
(Left: Peyton Manning and Adrian Peterson are the two leading MVP candidates)

     If I were to vote for the NFL MVP, it would not take me very long to make my decision. I would think about picking Peyton Manning, I wouldn't choose him, but I would have to pause and think for a second. I have decided my vote goes for Vikings RB Adrian Peterson, and I wouldn't have to ponder (see what I did there?) it for very long.

Disclaimer
     This is my rationale for MVP, not comeback player of the year. Because both Adrian Peterson and Peyton Manning have come back from devastating injuries, played a full season, and were incredibly effective, I consider the injury category a push and do not factor it into my decision. This is also based on the regular season and not on which player is in a better position or has a better chance to win the Super Bowl.

My Definition of Most Valuable Player:
     This may seem painfully obvious, but it is an important place to start in the Manning vs. Peterson debate. There is no set definition for being the NFL MVP, and each voter has their own distinct and unique way of deciphering who to cast their vote for. When I go about choosing the MVP, I put the most emphasis on the "V", it's all about value. And by that I mean how valuable the player in question is to their team.
Adrian Peterson with a stiff arm on Packers Safety Atari Bigby
     Now, in my opinion, the tactic of saying, "if you were doing an NFL fantasy draft for this one year, who would you choose first?" slants way too far towards the QB's. Quarterback is the single most important position in any sport, thus it carries the most weight in decision making. By the fantasy draft way of thinking, Adrian Peterson would more than likely not even be in the MVP conversation. Because QB is so important, if you were doing a draft of all players to start your team for one year of play, you would almost assuredly take Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and Drew Brees over Adrian Peterson. I'm also sure there are people who would take players among the likes of Matt Ryan, Robert Griffin III, Andrew Luck, and Russell Wilson purely because of their positional importance. That's why I throw that theory out the window.
     They way I like to decide MVP's is by taking the player off of the team and replacing them with an "average player" at the same position. This is the same basic idea of the popular Baseball statistic WAR (wins above replacement). By doing this, I think you get the most realistic look at the value of any particular player.

Why Adrian Peterson?
     Bottom line: The Minnesota Vikings do not make the Playoffs without Adrian Peterson. First, let's look at Adrian Peterson's season statistics:

348 car, 2,097 yds, 131.1 yds/gm, 6.0 yds/car, 12 TD, 2 fumbles lost

     Wow, talk about dominating the league. Peterson ended up only nine yards short of breaking Eric Dickerson's all time single season rushing record of 2,105 yards. I think breaking that record would have made Peterson an easier choice for most, but I don't think nine yards will change my opinion of him. 
Adrian Peterson leaps over Bears Safety Major Wright
     Let's run Adrian Peterson through my test of replacing him with an average player. With Adrian Peterson narrowly missing the greatest single season by any RB in history, the Vikings snuck into the Playoffs in the final second of the final game of their season. I do not believe any other RB in the league could have carried the Vikings to victory, only Peterson. Christian Ponder the QB for the Vikings is very little more than a game manager. Ponder only threw for 2,935 yards this year. 2,935, that's only 900 yards more than Peterson ran for. Are you serious? That's 183.4 yards per game. Ponder averaged 50 yards a game more than Peterson IN A PASSING LEAGUE. That's argument number one in my mind right there. 
     If the Vikings had another good, not even average, but good running back like Benjarvus Green-Ellis who ran for over 1,000 yards, do the Vikings make the playoffs? No way. Peterson had to do more than just have a productive year, he had to make plays, big ones, he was the deep threat for this team, especially with Percy Harvin injured. 

Why Not Peyton Manning?
Denver Broncos QB, Peyton Manning
     Manning had a great season, there is no denying that. He got the No. 1 seed in the AFC while throwing for 4,659 yards and 37 TD's. I can not deny those are MVP type numbers. But when I put him through my MVP calibration test, he passes, but not with flying colors like Adrian Peterson. Manning's value to the Broncos during the regular season is overrated in my eyes. I don't even have to imagine what this Broncos team could do with an average QB. Last year we saw what they could do with a Quarterback that can barely throw a football. Tim Tebow led the Broncos to the Playoffs. The man who could not start over the horrendous Mark Sanchez or the rookie 7th round pick Greg McElroy was able to take the Broncos to the playoffs, and win a playoff game over the Steelers. 
     My grand point is this, Peyton Manning took over a playoff team that won their division before he was there and did the same. Sure he got more wins and a better seed for his team, but he took over a division winning team. Look at how pitiful the AFC West is. The Raiders, Chiefs, and Chargers are three of the 10 worst teams in the NFL. The only reason those three sorry teams got wins was because they got to play each other and every time that happened one team out-worsed the other.

Closing Statement
The Most Valuable player must bring the most value to his team. Could the Denver Broncos have won the AFC West and made the Playoffs with an average Quarterback instead of Peyton Manning? Yes. Could the Minnesota Vikings have made the Playoffs with an average Running Back instead of Adrian Peterson? No way. Adrian Peterson for MVP, All day.
My NFL MVP vote, Adrian Peterson
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Monday, September 24, 2012

Buster Posey for MVP

The National League MVP used to be one of the more boring awards this year, as it was basically a one man race between Andrew McCutchen and the rest of the world.  Ryan Braun has been consistently elite in 2012 as well, and is submitting a season about equal to his MVP performance last year.  But since the All-Star break, McCutchen started to become more human, and Buster Posey began to turn into a fire-breathing baseball machine.  And he has just about earned himself the award.



Let's talk about his second half.  Because it's historic.  A .383/.455/.639 AVG/OBP/SLG line is beyond any expectations that were thrown his way.  Take a walk back to May 25, 2012, a year removed from his crushing ankle injury.  He was batting a respectable .290 and the giants were 4 games behind the Dodgers still.  People had no reason to panic, but nothing special seemed to be on the horizon.  Four months later the Giants are 10 games up and a 25-year old catcher, our catcher, has a chance to be named the best player in the NL.

In Buster Posey's second half, he's hitting .350 in 4
places outside of the strike zone.  Uhhhhhhh...wow.


The offensive arguments are there for Braun and McCutchen, as they match or exceed Buster in a number of categories.  But they play left field and center field, respectively, which are two of the most talented positions in the majors.  And while both hold their own defensively, neither players are considered highly above average according to UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating).  Posey equals each on the defensive side, and plays a much harder position.  Plus, quality catchers hardly grow on trees these days.  The difference between Posey and the average starting catcher is much greater than Ryan Braun and the average left fielder, especially offensively.  According to Bay City Ball, Buster is hitting better than any first baseman in the league. The most offensive-oriented position in the league can't hold a candle to Buster Freakin' Posey. In early September Posey had already achieved the greatest season for a Giants catcher ever. That is an enourmous value that the Giants get to take advantage of.



Honestly, it comes down to the fact that there is only one Buster Posey.  And that's what will win the voters over.  And rightfully so, because his story is incredible.  Many thought he would maybe get 400 plate appearances at the most considering how awful and career-threatening his injury was.  He has 580.  He came back stronger and with more resilience than anybody expected, leading his team in every connotation of the word.  The Giants are going to the playoffs on his shoulders, while the Brewers and Pirates are just not quite there.  When looking back at the lack of offense for the 2011 team, it is now so clear how truly valuable Posey is to this franchise.



He is the Chosen One, and he deserves to be the 2012 NL MVP.





Wednesday, September 12, 2012

MLB Wears a Glass Slipper This Year

Baseball season is ending soon, which is both a curse and a gift.  The pennant races heat up, and the fanbases become rabid.  It's beautiful.  But this year there's a few cities that are blowing everyone away. The Oakland A's and the Baltimore Orioles are lighting up baseball and Cinderellas everywhere, and they're doing it without the normal stars that usually occupy a playoff team.

These 2012 A's are much more "Moneyball" than the actual 2002 movie version.  They have a 55 million dollar payroll compared to the Yankees' 198 million, about 40 million more of a difference than two years ago.  And their general manager Billy Beane did it with unpopular risks, just like before.  One of those risks was trading Andrew Bailey, his exciting young closer, for Josh Reddick of the Red Sox, a player many writers felt was wildly overrated.  Billy Beane took a player that was at the top of their value and pawned him to fill a glaring weakness.  Beane had confidence in his minor league pitchers and knew that one of them could be traded. Reddick is still just 25 and will probably bring in a 30 homerun season already.  Plus he has one of the best heads of hair in baseball.

Last year, the Oakland A's boasted two of the top young pitchers in the game in Gio Gonzales and Trevor Cahill.  So Beane proceeds to trade both of them to replenish a bleak farm system.  It just so happened that the farm system was ready a little faster than people expected.  The A's have found prominence with their dominant pitching again, but it's with rookies and castoff veterans.  Tommy Milone and Bartolo Colon average a COMBINED 3.1 BB/9, while 25 year old Ryan Cook has a 2.64 ERA as their best lockdown reliever from the Cahill trade.  Meanwhile Jarrod Parker has given up less homers than any pitcher in the AL.  The A's are for real this year and have the playoff formula down pat.  A very scary team for any AL counterpart.

They could end up playing their Cinderella partner in the postseason though.  The Baltimore Orioles are succeeding this season, but nobody can figure out how.  Camden Yards is playing like Coors Field this year, and the Orioles have taken advantage.  They seem to absolutely preach the old mantra "live and die by the long ball", because they have five players with at least 19 homers on the year.  Compared to the Giants, who have two people in double digits and one of them was juiced, that's outlandish.  Just one of their starting 9 has a slugging percentage of under .400, when the league average is .395.

The Orioles have a run differential of -22, which means they should be about 68-73.  Often times these surprising teams are simply lucky, something run differential is supposed to tell us.  But there is another way to get lucky, and that's to have a stellar bullpen.  They are able to hold on to the close wins that may skew the run differential.  The Orioles' bullpen has a 3.15 ERA and have been lights out all year.  The bullpen is also when a team can make a difference very cheaply.  Good relievers come out of nowhere every year, and the Orioles struck a gold mine with this years' class.  Darren O'day, known from Giants fans as the guy that gave up Juan Uribe's homer in game 1 of the World Series, is having a phenomenal year, and so are Jim Johnson, Luis Ayala, and Troy Patton.  None of them have double digit contracts, but all are making a big difference in the Orioles season.


Thursday, June 21, 2012

NBA Mock Draft 3.0

Combine/Team Workouts Cause Changes
By: Brian Sanchez @SportsReportDU



1. New Orleans Hornets- Anthony Davis, PF/C Kentucky
The obvious pick here as Davis is a difference maker in all facets of the game.  The Hornets are going to be able to contend for the 8th playoff spot as soon as this coming season.  


2. Charlotte Bobcats- Thomas Robinson, PF Kansas
It seems like the Bobcats are going to go with Robinson.  He is short but also very strong and athletic.  The Bobcats current best player is SF Gerald Henderson and neither he or MKG can play Sg so the edge goes to Robinson.  T Rob can also score better than MKG which makes the offensively starved Bobcats like him even more.  Barnes is a possibility here as well as Beal.


3. Washington Wizards- Bradley Beal, SG Florida
I think Beal is highly overrated, his comparisons have been Ray Allen and Eric Gordon and frankly that's ridiculous.  I do think he is good and can be a good shooter in the NBA but you can't compare him to the all time leader in NBA 3 point history.  Now that the Wizards have acquired Emeka Okafor and Trevor Ariza they have no need to take MKG or T Rob.  What they do need however is a SG all but assuring Beal of being the No. 3 pick.


4. Cleveland Cavaliers- Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, SF Kentucky
This works out very nicely for the Cavs.  They choose between MKG and Harrison Barnes, and while it could very well be Barnes (who the Cavs wanted last year) I give the nod to MKG.  MKG can defend, rebound, and attack the rim as well as anyone in the draft.  He will be a great wing piece to go with Kyrie Irving.  Irving is a big time scorer so it will be good to have the No. 2 player on the team being a hard working, defensive minded leader.


5. Sacramento Kings- Harrison Barnes, SF North Carolina
Beal locking in at 3 pushes MKG to 4 which makes Barnes avaiable at 5 which is a beautiful situation for the Kings.  They really need a 3, moving Tyreke Evans to the three is a terrible idea.  If Barnes goes to the Cavs at 4, then the Kings get MKG so either way this is a good spot for them.  Barnes will bring them perimeter shooting from the wing and add another young piece to a team that has failed to turn good young peices in to victories.


6. Portland Trailblazers- Damian Lillard, PG Weber St.
Let's keep it simple, the Blazers want Lillard to be their next explosive PG.  He will not be there at No.11, which i their next pick.  So rather than going with Drummond, I think they'll go ahead and grab Lillard, if he's your guy, just take him.  


7. Golden State Warriors- Dion Waiters, SG/PG Syracuse
If the draft falls this way the Warriors will be looking at 3 names: Dion Waiters, Andre Drummond, and Terrence Ross.  The Warriors need a 3rd guard for the rotation, a back up big man, or a SF.  Waiters represents the guard.  He is short at 6'4" but he may be the toughest player in the back court in this draft.  That is an area the Warriors need as Curry and Thompson are talented but not all that tough.  Waiters ability to back up the 1 and the 2 makes him the pick here.  I would not be surprised if the Warriors select Drummond here.  He represents a big, athletic, defensive center, something this team has not had in a long time.  He could back up the 4 and the 5 if the Warriors decide they want to take the chance on him (which they very well might).  Terrence Ross would be the pick if the W's think he could start at the SF position right away.  Ross is 6'7", a terrific shooter, good ball handler, and a good rebounder.  He has a tendency to disappear during games which is why he is more of a mid first round prospect.  The Warriors were not impressed by the workouts of Terrence Jones or PJIII so I think they're out of the picture.  Dorrell Wright will almost certainly be traded leaving a spot open at the 3.  Waiters could come off the bench at the 2 and Klay could slide to the 3 and be the back up SF.


8. Toronto Raptors- Andre Drummond, C Connecticut
The Raptors will not be thrilled with the way this draft went.  They would have wanted Lillard or Waiters but both jumped ahead of the 8 spot.  The Raptors make a pure value pick and take the chance on Drummond.  If he pans out he becomes a player that the Raptors would never have been able to attract in free agency so he's worth the risk.


9. Detroit Pistons- Meyers Leonard, C Illinois
The Pistons would have liked to see Drummond here, but since he is gone and they need a Center they'll turn to Leonard.  Meyers is a 7 footer himself and good defensively and a solid rebounder.  He can play the center and move Greg Monroe to the PF and the Pistons should see an improvement.


10. New Orleans Hornets- Austin Rivers, SG Duke
Having already selected Anthony Davis and thus winning this draft the Hornets can just stock pile talent at any position.  Rivers would have been a top 3 prospect had he stayed at Duke another year so the Hornets take the lethal scorer with the killer crossover, put him behind Eric Gordon and start building some serious depth.  



11. Portland Trailblazers- Terrence Ross, SG Washington
The Blazers already got their guy in Lillard, and now they give him a running mate.  The versatile 6'7" Ross can shoot the lights out, and although the Blazers didn't get a center, they did inject a shot of youth and excitement into their back court.


12. Milwaukee Bucks- John Henson, PF/C North Carolina
The Bucks swapped defense for offense with their trade of Bogut for Monta Ellis.  They need to re stock their talent on the defensive end because that is the calling card of this Milwaukee team.  Henson will probably be able to guard the 3, 4, and 5 positions in the NBA which is his biggest asset.  Between him, Ekpe Udoh, and Luc Richard Mbah Moute the defense will be formidable again.  


13. Phoenix Suns- Kendall Marshall, PG North Carolina
The Suns offense for years has revolved around a PG with great vision distributing the ball to the whole team and getting everyone else going.  Marshall is no Steve Nash but he does have exceptional court vision and is a pure pass first PG.  With no other PG on the roster who could start and the Nash era coming to an end, Marshall makes sense for the Suns.


14. Houston Rockets- Jeremy Lamb, SG Connecticut
The Rockets need help at center and SG and with no centers available at this pick it narrows down the options.  Kevin Martin probably won't be in Houston past this year and Lamb projects to be very similar but a much better defensive prospect than Martin.  Lamb could go earlier so I think if he is still there the Rockets grab him.


15. Philadelphia 76ers- Arnett Moultrie, PF/C 
The 76ers want to get stronger in the middle and the certainly do so by taking Moultrie.  They could certainly take Zeller here but I think the 76ers want to get a more athletic, physical player rather than the softer more skilled Zeller.  Moultrie is very athletic and can rebound and block shots.  He can come off the bench at both positions and will be a welcomed addition.


16. Houston Rockets- Tyler Zeller, C/PF North Carolina
Zeller isn't the most amazing prospect there is, but he sure is a good one.  He has good moves in the post, especially for a 7 footer in college.  He has good speed and will beat his defenders down the floor and is developing a nice mid range jumper.  He probably won't be a starter but for a team that needs help down low like the Rockets do he is a very good rotational piece.  


17. Dallas Mavericks- Terrence Jones, SF/PF Kentucky
Jones may rival PJIII as the biggest draft enigma.  He could go #7 to the Warriors or later than this.  He is a big physical specimen, he rebounds and defends well and attacks the rim.  He is a good passer but a bad shooter.  He reminds a lot of people of Josh Smith, for both good and bad reasons.  If Jones is here for Dallas I think they should take his athleticism and toughness on the wing which is needed in Dallas. 


18. Minnesota Timberwolves- Perry Jones III, SF Baylor
The Timberwolves represent the first team I can see that has no alternative options better than just taking PJIII.  I can see him being an All Star just as easily as I can see him being useless.  The wolves are a team that should take risks like PJIII and go for the Home Run.


19. Orlando Magic- Quincy Miller, SF Baylor
The lesser discussed of the 2 Baylor SF's is Miller, and I don't think he is much worse than PJIII.  Had he not injured his ACL and missed time, I think he would be in the mix for the Warriors at 7.  Had he satyed in school I think he would have been in the top 5 with Austin Rivers.  That being said, he is not NBA ready but projects out to be a very good player.  the Magic need all the talent they can get so they just snag him.


20. Denver Nuggets- Jared Sullinger, PF Ohio St.
Sullinger had been medically red flagged by NBA doctors leading to his fall here.  Many teams have just taken him off of their board.  The Nuggets have such good depth and no holes in the starting 5 that they can take Sullinger and hope for the best.  If he stays healthy they get a lot better, if not, oh well.  At 20 the Nuggets can afford to take that risk.



21. Boston Celtics- Royce White, PF Iowa St.
Chad Ford has reported that White has cancelled his remaining workouts which means he got a first round promise.  White has an anxiety disorder which leaves him unable to fly in airplanes without using so much energy that he is physically exhausted after landing.  Ford reported that most of his sources are telling him the Celtics gave him the promise.  He is a high risk, high reward pick and with back to back first rounders the Celtics obviously feel he's worth it.


22. Boston Celtics- Doron Lamb, SG Kentucky
I've had Fab Melo here, but with the Celtics taking a risk on White, I think they need a safer pick and a SG.  Lamb is an efficient offensive player who can shoot 3's and plays an old school style of ball.  I think he fits the Celtics nicely.


23. Atlanta Hawks- Marquis Teague, PG Kentucky
This would be so cool.  The Hawks like their current starter Jeff Teague but would like a back up and eventual replacement should they lose Jeff in free agency.  Why not go with Jeff's brother Marquis?  Marquis is pretty good at every aspect of the game but not great at anything.  He will be a solid back up and may help turn team chemistry around by playing with his brother.  


24. Cleveland Cavaliers- Fab Melo, C Syracuse
The Cavs already got MKG and I think they are pretty happy about that.  Melo is still on the board and the Cavs can use depth inside.  He is a risk because he doesn't seem to be the smartest or hardest working player, but the Cavs should give him a go.  If he pans out, cleveland could be back on the map.


25. Memphis Grizzlies- Evan Fournier, SG France
It's been reported that the Grizzlies are looking to stash a pick over seas in this draft and Fournier is the best international prospect in a weak international class.  He is 19 but he can shoot very well and is a good scorer.  


26. Indiana Pacers- Jeffrey Taylor, SF Vanderbilt
The Pacers want a PG, but without one worth it on the board, I don't think they'll force it.  Taylor is the best player available as he compares very much to Thabo Sefolosha.  A great defender, good athlete, and even has a decent long stroke.  He can be a back up 2 and 3 and fill a role in the starting 5 in case of an injury or trade.


27. Miami Heat- Andrew Nicholson, PF St. Bonaventure
The Heat really need to improve their depth down low.  Nicholson can block shots, rebound, and score in the post and with a mid range jumper.  The only knock on him is the lesser competition he faced in college.  Nicholson can both play alongside Bosh or in his place making him a valuable piece.  


28. Oklahoma City Thunder- Tony Wroten, PG/SG Washington
Wroten is one of the ultimate boom or bust prospects in this draft.  At 6'6" he has the ability to play both guard positions.  He is a terrible shooter, but is extremely athletic and can get to the rim at will.  The Thunder don't need anything so they may as well take Wroten, give him time to develop and see if they can hit another home run with a first rounder.


29. Chicago Bulls- John Jenkins, SG Vanderbilt
The Bulls need better perimeter shooting from the 2 spot and it comes down to Jenkins and Lamb.  Jenkins has shown in workouts that he has the ability to score from all over and has the athleticism to get in the lane and be more than a jump shooter.  He is more consistent than Doron Lamb so I would look for Jenkins to go here. 


30. Golden St. Warriors- Festus Ezeli, C Vanderbilt
The Warriors have a lot of options here.  They could go  Draymond Green, Jared Cunnigham, Kevin Jones or Will Barton.  I think they will go with Ezeli the 7 foot defensive presence at center.  With David Lee and Andrew Bogut already on the team, adding Ezeli gives them another big post player allowing them to never let Biedrins see the floor again and giving Jeremy Tyler more time to develop.  Ezeli has good blocking skills and can also rebound a little.  Ezeli is NBA strong right now and won't be there at pick 35 and a lot of good wing men will be.

First Ten Picks of the Second Round 
1. Charlotte Bobcats- Jared Cunningham, SG Oregon St.
2. Washington Wizards- Draymond Green, SF/PF Michigan St.
3. Cleveland Cavaliers- Will Barton, SG Memphis
4. Cleveland Cavaliers- Furkan Aldemir, PF Turkey
5. Golden State Warriors- Kris Middleton, SF Texas A&M
6. Sacramento Kings- Kyle O'Quin, PF/ C Norfolk St.
7. Toronto Raptors- Tyshawn Taylor, PG Kansas
8. Denver Nuggets- Tomas Satoransky, PG/SG Czech Republic
9. Detroit Pistons- Darius Miller, SF Kentucky
10. Portland Trailblazers- Drew Gordon, PF New Mexico








































Thursday, June 7, 2012

Putting on my GM Hat

What I Would do with the Warriors
By: Brian Sanchez @SportsReportDU


     The Warriors have a chance to be good this coming season.  It will be a breath of fresh air when most times the Warriors take the court they will either have the edge down low or be able to compete with any combination of bigs.  4 of the starting 5 is set, Curry at the point, Thompson at the 2, Lee at the 4, and Bogut at the 5.  Right now at the 3 is Dorell Wright and Richard Jefferson.  I don't mind Jefferson on the team, I know he is not worth the contract but we can't worry about it especially because we didn't make the mistake of signing him to it.  Dorell Wright has an expiring contract and is the best trade asset on the team and I will take advantage of it.  I say he has the most value because he is decent, has the expiring contract, and while there are better players on the team than him he is the one we can trade away and not really miss.  So, I have 4 draft picks, the expiring contract of Dorell Wright and 3 holes to fill (back up PG/SG, back up PF/C, and another 3 whether it be a starter or back up).  Here we go...

     First I want to address the back up guard spot.  I think Charles Jenkins is serviceable and I want to keep him on the roster.  But we need a guard who can eat up big minutes and even more so, start if Curry goes down.  Jenkins is OK, but I would not expect to make the playoffs with him as the starter.  So the first order of business is look for a PG on the trade market who is attainable.  Found him, Kyle Lowry from the Rockets.  Lowry is a good PG who can defend very well, hit 3's and plays like a bowling ball.  He would be an excellent 3rd guard along with Curry and Thompson.  Lowry could take 20-25 minutes night at the point.  It would also relieve pressure from Klay Thompson because Lowry could run the point with Curry as the 2.  And I think if Curry got more time off the ball he would score much more coming off of screens and not worrying about setting other player up.  This could also work because Lowry could have a good shot at defending 2's when he plays with Lowry.  Also, if Curry gets hurt you have a PG in Lowry who can easily be a starter, he has been for years, that way a Curry injury does not end Playoff hopes.  Then Charles Jenkins slides back in to the back up PG role.

     How do I get Lowry you ask?  Well, I have the leverage because both the Rockets and Lowry want to be done with each other.  This is where Wright comes in handy.  What I would do is trade Dorrell for Lowry and swap first rounders with Houston and throw in the 35th pick.  The Rockets own picks 14 and 16 and I would take 14.  The Rockets would do this because they could get some perimeter shooting with Wright as well as get him off the books the next year.  And they would move up 7 picks in the draft while still having pick 16.  At 7 the Rockets could choose the PG of their liking, a big man, or hope one of the top 6 prospects fall.  So all the Rockets do is improve their draft position and trade a player they don't want for an expiring contract.  I come away with the PG I covet and complete a solid three guard rotation.  Moving back to 14 does not bother me because a lot of the player I like at 7 will probably be there at 14.  And I got rid of the 35th pick which I did not have a roster spot for but kept my 30th pick.  (If the Rockets said they would do the deal if they got pick 30 instead of 35, that'd be fine)

     Now comes the Draft.  I filled my hole at back up guard, now I need to address SF and a back up big.  At 14 I have the chance to do both (people need to realize we do not have the assets to trade for Rudy Gay, Andre Iguodala, Danny Granger, or Nic Batum).  The two players I'm looking at are Terrence Jones, SF Kentucky and Meyers Leonard, center from Illinois.  The Decision becomes two-fold.  Can Terrence Jones play SF in the NBA or is he going to be an undersized overly athletic 4 which doesn't help the team?  The second question becomes what free agent can be signed that fills the hole that the draft pick doesn't.  Since the Warriors basically only have the Mid Level Exception (we'll say 4 million dollars) to work with, there are more options of veteran bigs that can be signed than veteran small forwards.  So, given that information, with the 14th pick in the 2012 NBA Draft the Golden State Warriors select, Terrence Jones SF Kentucky.  Jones is very athletic and strong.  He can rebound as well as handle the ball.  He has a good face up game and an incredibly quick first step which means he can take guys off the dribble.  Jones has everything it would take to become a good defender.  His biggest flaw is his lack of a shot, but get him to attack the rim relentlessly and the shot matters much less.  I am comfortable starting Richard Jefferson and having Terrence Jones take the bulk of the minutes as his back up.  The natural hope would be for Jones to take the starting job from Jefferson and move RJ to the back up 3.  With the remaining picks, I take Jared Cunningham SG out of Oregon St. 30th overall to be another guard.  He can score and is a big time draft sleeper.  Then with the final pick in the late 2nd round I take the best International player available since I have no roster spot open for anybody.

     Now the final piece of the puzzle, the back up big man.  Although I liked Meyers Leonard I found it much more feasible to find a veteran big to play down low.  This big must be able to play the center in case Bogut gets hurt and play a little 4 to spell David Lee.  I like Jeremy Tyler but prefer him in the Chalres Jenkins role as the 4th man.  Not to mention if I want to win I never let Biedrins touch the floor again.  The goal is to have a 3 man rotation down low just like the 3 man rotation with Lowry, Curry, and Thompson.  There are three big men which I believe could be had for just the MLE (as that is all I have to work with, thanks Biedrins) Kenyon Martin, Darrell Arthur, and Jordan Hill.  Arthur is the most likely to get more than the MLE so we will cancel him out.  Kenyon Martin made $2.5 mil last year and Hill made $2.9 mil.  I think for the $4-5 mil that the MLE will be worth, Kenyon can be had.  And this is especially true if Joe Lacob would really dip into the luxury tax like he said he would (which I am not buying now that he has to pay for a new stadium).  Martin brings incredible toughness and rebounding and could give minutes at both the 4 and the 5.  Lee, Bogut, and Martin make up my 3 man rotation with Jeremy Tyler as a kicker.
     
So here is my new roster with basically no money to spare: 

Starting 5:
PG Stephen Curry
SG Klay Thompson
SF Richard Jefferson
PF David Lee
C Andrew Bogut

Reserves:
PG Kyle Lowry
PF/C Kenyon Martin
SF Terrence Jones
PF/C Jeremy Tyler
PG Charles Jenkins
C Andris Biedrins
SG Jared Cunningham




Tuesday, June 5, 2012

SF Giants 2012 Draft

Back on Track
By: Brian Sanchez @SportsReportDU



     The Giants have strayed from stock piling talent in the starting rotation in recent yeas with the first round picks of CF Gary Brown and SS Joe Panik.  Well, the Giants are back on track now taking RHP Chris Stratton out of Mississippi St.  Many, including the Giants, did not think Stratton would be there at 20.  The 6'3" 198 lb. starter had a great season in college this last year.  He went 11-2 with a 2.38 ERA in the potent SEC with 127 K's and only 25 BB's in 110 innings.  Stratton edged out 4th overall pick Kevin Gausman for SEC pitcher of the year and was a finalist for the Golden Spikes award.  In his first game as a starter this season he struck out 17 against the LSU Tigers.  Stratton sits between 90-93 MPH on the fastball which has a good downward plane and decent late movement.  He has good skill at elevating the fastball up above the letters where it will entice hitters without leaving it down where it can be driven hard.  His best secondary pitch is a devastating slider.  It breaks more up and down than it does left to right, but it bites hard and is very deceptive.  He also has a curveball which is not as good as the slider but adds another wrinkle.  His change up is a work in progress, and with the way the Giants have been able to aid their pitchers in learning the change up it could be a good one.  He has very good accuracy and will throw any pitch at any time.  Now, you may be saying to yourself, "wow that sounds like a scouting report on a much younger Matt Cain."  Well, that's because he compares very well to a younger Matt Cain, the one who first cam to the pro's.  They are very similar pitchers, this is just a projection, but Stratton has everything it would take to pitch like a Cain, including the work horse load.  Look for Stratton to be in call-up conversations within 2-3 years.  Good pick for the Giants, and with the way they draft pitching you'd have to bank on Stratton being good and Teams looking back at this drsft wondering why did we let him past us?  

     This may be a situation where sounding like a broken record is a very good thing.  The second pitcher taken was Martin Agosta out of St. Mary's in California.  Agosta is 6'1" 180 lbs. And has done nothing but dominate and win at every level he has played at.  He won 8 games for St. Mary's with a 2.37 ERa and struck out 74 batters in 87 innings.  Agosta can throw 90-93 MPH despite his smaller frame with an ability to run a fastball up to 95 MPH.  His fastball has very good sink and tail on it making it a very good first option.  Both his curve and his changeup project to be solid MLB pitches.  As he works his way through the ranks they will probably improve given the Giants track record of grooming pitcher who were picked early.  Agosta has very good control of his pitches and while he does not have quite the upside of Stratton he does project to be a 3 or 4 starter who gives his team a chance to win every day in the MLB.  He is probably 3 years away from being considered for a MLB call up but when him and Stratton both hit Single-A San Jose at the same time it will foster healthy competition between the two not to mention dominant stat lines.

     The Giants finally took a position player and he may just turn out to be a good one.  The pick was Mac Williamson out of Wake Forest.  He is a big boy at 6'4" 240 lbs. and he has some good projectable abilities with some obvious flaws.  Williamson has tremedous raw power which will be exciting to track through the Giants system as they have a dire need for power.  Williamson also has decent speed a cannon for an arm.  He projects as a middle of the order power hitting RF which is a site for sore eyes in the Giants organization.   His big flaw is his ability to make consistent contact right now, he projects to a .240-.260 BA guy in the pros but of course that will be an area to focus on in his development.  His calling card will be his power and right now I could see him going 25-30 HR in the meat of his career which means you will live with a .250 BA given his power.  He is an intriguing prospect who will take 2-3 years to be in call up conversations as the Giants continue the quick through the system college players.

Check back later for more information on any more notable picks from this draft.  Spoiler alert: there are some more relievers that can throw Heath Hembree fast.